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January 28th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Upate

Posted by pugsma on January 28, 2014

4:55 pm EST:  Today the three key SP-500 Buy triggers were pulled at the close.  So there should be a move higher for at the short-term, which is indicated by both wave counts below.  See this chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p23917655901&a=269536931&r=1377203427577&cmd=print

The primary count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 bottomed to at 1772, which is the 38% retrace of minor 3.   As long as minor 4 remains above the minor 1 high of 1730, this primary count remain valid.  Assuming minor 4 bottomed  at 1772, the move up to 1794 is wave i-(1) of minor 5 and the drop back to 1780 was wave ii-(1) of minor 5.   The current move up should be a wave iii-(1) up to a 1838 target, where iii=2.62*i and wave (1) should reach the 1849 pivot area before a wave (2) correction back to the 1814 pivot.  This move up to 1849 for wave (1) and down to 1814 for wave (2) of minor 5 will form an inverse head and shoulders with head at 1772 and neckline at 1849 on the 60-min chart that will take the SP-500 to major [5]-P3-C1 target area of 1930/1940.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 bottomed at 1772.    Assuming minor 1 is complete at 1772, the move up to 1794 was wave (a) of minor 2 and the small ascending triangle between 1780 and 1794 is wave (b) of minor 1.  The next move should be a wave (c) of minor 2 up to the 50%/62% fib retrace area of 1812/1821.   There is also a (c)=(a) target at 1813 that agrees with these fib retrace targets and the 1814 pivot.  This minor 2 wave move up from the 1772 to 1812/1821 will form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern with neckline at 1770 and target of 1689 for the completion of major [A]-P4-C1.  A break below the 1770 neckline, should trigger the minor 3 of major [A] wave down towards 1700.  This alternate (blue) count remains valid less the 1851 level is breached.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 1-28-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-28-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 1-28-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 1-28-14

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