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January 27th, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 27, 2014

5:30 pm EST:  The $NYMO closed at -54 vs a -28 lower BB.   This is a 2nd consecutive daily close will be the lower BB.  The last time this happened was at the minor 2 low of 1646 back on Oct 7th, 2013.

The primary count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 bottomed to at 1772, which is the 38% retrace of minor 3.  There is however, a possibility that minor 4 could extend down to the (c)=2.26*(a) target of 1760, if today’s bounce to 1794 was just wave iv-(c) of minor 4.   As long as minor 4 remains above the minor 1 high of 1730, this primary count remain valid.  Assuming minor 4 bottomed today at 1772, the move up to 1794 today wave i-(1) of minor 5 and the drop back to 1781 was wave ii-(1) of minor 5.   The next move should be a wave iii-(1) up to a 1839 target, where iii=2.62*i and wave (1) should reach the 1849 pivot area before a wave (2) correction back to the 1814 pivot.  This move to 1849 for wave (1) and down to 1814 for wave (2) of minor 5 will form an inverse head and shoulders with head at 1772 and neckline at 1849 on the 60-min chart that will take the SP-500 to major [5]-P3-C1 target area of 1930/1940.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 bottomed today at 1772.  There is however, a possibility that minor 1 could correct down to the 1768 area and today’s move up to 1794 was only wave (4) of minor 1.   Assuming minor 1 is complete at 1772, the move to 1794 was wave (a) of minor 2 and drop at the close to 1781 was wave (b) of minor 1.  The next move should be a wave (c) of minor 2 up to the 50%/62% retrace area of 1812/1821.  This move up from the 1772 to 1821 will form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern with neckline at 1870 and target of 1689 for the completion of major [A]-P4-C1.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 1-27-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-27-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 1-27-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 1-27-14

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