January 24th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on January 24, 2014
6:00 pm EST: As indicated in the comments section late this after, I have adjusted the primary wave count based on the following:
I’ve been examining the 4-hr chart in a little more detail this afternoon and I’m come to the conclusion that primary count needs further adjustment. I now think this correction since 1849 on Dec 31st is a minor 4 wave of major [5]-P3-C1.
There are a couple of reasons for this: 1) This current correction has been going on longer in time and deeper in correction than the minor 4 wave labeled on the charts (i.e. 1814 to 1768). 2) The minor 2 correction from 1730 to 1646 in late Sept to early Oct was a sharp Zig-Zag and this correction looks like a flat, which satisfies the guideline of alternation between 4th and 2nd waves.
This change doesn’t matter a whole like to the primary count outlook that once this minor 4 wave bottoms there will be a minor 5 wave up to 1900+. It does however mean that this minor 4 correction must now stay above 1730 and not 1768, which gives the current correction some more room to drop.
The primary count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 has playing out as a 3-3-5 flat since the 1849 made on Dec 31st, 2013. This rapid move down from 1849 to 1790 thus far is the (c) of minor 4 wave. C waves like 3 wave are very scary rapid moves. This (c) of minor 4 maybe complete at 1790, which is just below the (c)=1.62*(a) target of 1794 or it could have only complete wave iii-(c) of minor 4 in which case it will bounce to about 1803/1812 wave iv-(c) before completing in the 1786 to 1775 area for wave v-(c) of minor 5. The typical wave 4 fib retrace of 38% is at 1772 and the double top (1849) target is 1780 on the break of 1815. Once minor 4 completes, wave minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 will make a new high above 1849 with a first target at 1883, where minor 5=1. This primary count for minor 4 remains valid above the minor 1 high of 1730. A break below 1730 confirms the alternate (blue) count below.
The alternate (blue) count is that wave minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 is underway that is complete or should complete soon in the 1780 area, which is the ideal double top (1849) target since 1815 was broken today. From minor 1 low of 1780, minor 2 should bounce to the 1815 pivot area before waves minor 3 and minor 5 of major [A] reaches a target in 1710 to 1687 area. Note that on the 60-min chart there is a large head and shoulders formation with head at 1849, neckline at 1768 that would target 1687. The rising 200-day SMA is also in the 1701 area and this is also a likely target for major [A]-P4-C1. The alternate (blue) count remains valid below the 1851 high.
Have a nice weekend.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
DJIA-30 daily chart (EOD):
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