January 10th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on January 10, 2014
5:40 pm EST: The SP-500 very short-term wave count is still very messy after today’s price action. But again the intermediate and long-term trend remains up as long as the 1814 pivot contains this move lower since 1849.
The primary count is that wave 4-i-(3) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is playing out as an ascending triangle with flat top at 1843. On a break-out above 1843, the triangle target is 1856 for the completion of wave i-(3). A wave ii-(3) correction of 38%/50% should then back-test the break-out to 1843/1840 before wave iii-(3) move toward 1900. Ultimately the P3-C1 target remains at 1941. There remains a variant of this primary count where the wave action since the 1824 low is an x-wave triangle for wave (2) and there will be another drop of 25 points for w=y down to 1818 to complete wave (2) before (3) up begins. The 1843 and 1824 levels separates these two primary count variants. A move above 1843 before below 1824 will mean that the first primary count variant is correct.
Should the SP-500 drop below the 1814 pivot, then the much more bearish intermediate term alternate (blue) wave count must be given more serious consideration. This alternate (blue) wave couth as the P3-C1 already topped at 1849 and P4-C1 down underway headed for a least 23% retracement of P3-C1 down to 1670. Wave (1) of minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 completed at 1824 and this move up to 1843 is wave (2). Wave (3) should now get underway head for a (3)=2.62*(1) target of 1779. And Minor 1 should eventually reach the 1768 area. This alternate (blue) count remains valid as long as the P3-C1 high of 1849 is not breached above.
Have a great weekend !
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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