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January 13th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 13, 2014

4:55 pm EST:  Today’s nearly 30 point drop in the SP-500 from 1843 to 1815 simplified the primary count and increased the probability of the alternate (blue) count.

For the primary count of the 1849 high for wave (1) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 we have a relatively simple a-b-c, 3-3-5 wave flat lower for wave (2) with a very complex b-wave.  Today wave b-(2) finally ended and wave c-(2) played out with a sharp drop from 1843 to 1815 that could be all of wave c-(2) or just the first 3-waves of the 5-waves of c-(2).   I think it will be later and another lower, low than 1815 will be seen in the next few days.   There is the typical wave (2) Fibonacci retrace targets at 1809 (50%) and 1799 (62%), which correspond to wave c=1.23*a and 1.62*a, respectively.   This primary count remains valid as long was wave (2) holds above the minor 4 low of 1768.

For the alternate (blue) we have what is an expected as very sharp wave (3) of minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 decline from 1843 to 1815 thus far.  I’m expecting wave (3) of minor 1 will continue drop rapidly toward the wave (3)=2.62*(1) target of 1779.  Ultimately wave (5) of minor 1 should reach the critical 1768 area before a minor 2 bounce.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 1-13-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-13-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 1-13-14

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