August 30th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on August 30, 2011
5:35 pm EST: Today went precisely as predicted. I was calling for a wave (4) retrace to the at least the iv-(3) area of 1194 and this is exactly what transpired this morning on the drop to 1195.77. Wave (5) of minor C of major [4]-PA began from 1195.77 and looks like it may be tracing out an ending diagonal, as wave 5’s often do after a rapid move up where price is hitting up against key resistance (1219/1229 pivots).
The primary (white/red) count red is that wave iii-(5) of minor C-[4]-PA hit the 1219 pivot resistance at 1220.10 and now wave iv-(5) is underway will a pull-back target of about 1208/1210. Ultimately, I’m looking for wave v-(5) to reach the 1224/1228 area, where C=A. There is another variaten to his ED count where 1220.10 complted wave v-(5) of minor C-[4]-PA, if we start wave (5) from 1200 instead of from 1210. In either case the major [4]-PA high is complete or nearly complete at the top of the purple down channel line off the 1371 May 2011 high and the next major move is lower. From this 1220/1228 area, major [5]-PA should begin and head down to make a new low below the major [3]-PA low of 1101. The targets for major [5]-PA range from 1045 to 1087. This major [5]-A should be an impulsive 5-wave move lower.
The alternate (blue) count is that major [W]-PB is nearly complete at 1220 or might stretch to 1228. Once complete major [X]-PB should retrace at least 50% of the [W]-PB wave and head towards the 1170/1174 area or the bottom of the 1168/1177/1187 pivot cluster. This major [X]-PB wave should be a corrective 3-wave move lower.
So both counts are pointing lower after this intermediate term top in the 1220/1228 area. Determinate which count is correct is going to be matter of whether the drop lower is impulsive (primary) or corrective (alternate) and if the drop holds the 1168 pivot or not.
Support is at the 1168/1177/1187 pivots and resistance at the 1219/1229 pivots.
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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