November 25th, 2025: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on November 25, 2025
3:10 pm EST: The SP500 opened flat from 6604, sold-off to hit 6660 (day’s low), rallied to 6760 (day’s high) and closed at …
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signal (VIX): On Thursday, Nov 20th, the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy triggered with the VIX closing above its upper BB. On Friday, Nov 21st the VIX closed back below its upper to confirm the second step 2. The VIX to closed red on Monday, Nov 24th to nail the final confirming step 3.
- SP500 Buy Signal (SP500 BB): On Thursday, Nov 20th the SP500 closed below its lower BB and triggered its SP500 Buy signal. On Friday, Nov 21st, the SP500 closed above its lower BB to confirming the signal.
- SP500 Buy Signal ($NYMO): On Thursday, Nov 20th, the $NYMO just missed closing below its lower BB at -66.07 vs -66.88. Thus, no Trifecta SP500 Buy signal (only 2 of 3).
- ZBT: A new ZBT is in play: On Thursday, Nov 20th the ZBT close be 0.40. In now has 10 trading days (until Monday, Dec 8th) to close above 0.615. !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- “Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.” Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. September 30th closed at 6687. Thus, Q4 should close above 6687 and if it reaches the average +6.8% gain that implies a target at 7141 by Dec 31st, 2025.
https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Hindenburg Omen (HO): The HO Signal was triggered on both Wednesday, Oct 30th and Thursday, October 31st. Since the year 2018 (last 30 HO’s), the 2-month SP500 return is a -6% (target of 6412 by Dec 30th) with 80% probability AFTER a HO. John ProV1 👨💻 on X: “@Barchart Hindenburg Omen History https://t.co/pXfTNZzbuV” / X Two more HO’s were triggered on Nov 5th and Nov 6th. That’s 4 HO’s in the past 8 trading days. History shows that clusters of HO’s (more than 3 within 30 days) tend to strengthen the cased for a more significant (more than -5%) pull-back. Subu Trade on X: “Another Hindenburg Omen triggered today. This is the 4th signal since last week. The cluster of Hindenburg Omens grows… 🚨 https://t.co/3he9DwpSZ7” / X Overall history shows the HO is only about 25% accurate in predicting a significant correction of > -10%
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% (target 6440) and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6920. The minor 4 wave played out as a minor (a)-(b)-(c) zig-zag. The minute (a) of minor 4 low was at 6631 and minute (b) wave of minor 4 completed at 6870. The minute (c) of minor 4 is complete at 6522. The minor 5 wave up is underway move above 6920 toward the minor 5=1.23minor 1 target of 7317. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6522 and must break above 6770 to confirm.
House Keeping: This is the final blog post until after the long Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. The next blog post will be on Monday, December 1st.
Enjoy the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend with Friends and Family!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
You must be logged in to post a comment.