November 19th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on November 19, 2025
4:10 pm EST: The SP500 opened flat from 6617, rose to 6689 (day’s high), dropped to 6604 (day’s low), rallied to 6632 and closed at 6642.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signal (VIX): One of three SP500 Buy signals triggered on Monday, Nov 17th. The best of the three, the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy triggered with the VIX closing above its upper BB. On both Tues and Wed, Nov 18th and 19th the VIX again closed above its upper BB. The VIX now needs to close back below its upper to confirm the second step.
- SP500 Buy Signal (SP500 BB): One Tuesday, Nov 18th the SP500 closed below its lower BB and triggered its SP500 Buy signal. On Wednesday, Nov 19th the SP500 closed above is lower BB confirming the signal.
- “Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.” Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. September 30th closed at 6687. Thus, Q4 should close above 6687 and if it reaches the average +6.8% gain that implies a target at 7141 by Dec 31st, 2025.
https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Hindenburg Omen (HO): The HO Signal was triggered on both Wednesday, Oct 30th and Thursday, October 31st. Since the year 2018 (last 30 HO’s), the 2-month SP500 return is a -6% (target of 6412 by Dec 30th) with 80% probability AFTER a HO. John ProV1 👨💻 on X: “@Barchart Hindenburg Omen History https://t.co/pXfTNZzbuV” / X Two more HO’s were triggered on Nov 5th and Nov 6th. That’s 4 HO’s in the past 8 trading days. History shows that clusters of HO’s (more than 3 within 30 days) tend to strengthen the cased for a more significant (more than -5%) pull-back. Subu Trade on X: “Another Hindenburg Omen triggered today. This is the 4th signal since last week. The cluster of Hindenburg Omens grows… 🚨 https://t.co/3he9DwpSZ7” / X Overall history shows the HO is only about 25% accurate in predicting a significant correction of > -10%
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% (target 6440) and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6920. The minor 4 wave is playing out as a minor (a)-(b)-(c) zig-zag. The minute (a) of minor 4 low was at 6631 and minute (b) wave of minor 4 completed at 6870. The minute (c) of minor 4 is complete at 6574, just below were (c)=(a) at 6581. The minor 5 wave up is underway and will move above 6920 toward the minor 5=minor 1 target of 7230. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6574.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is the minor 4 is still unfolding as a minute (a)-(b)-(c) zig-zag to the 23% Fib retrace target at 6520. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6689.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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