November 17th, 2025: SP500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update (EOD)
Posted by pugsma on November 17, 2025
5:10 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 6734 to 6714, dropped to 6704, bounced to 675 (day’s high), then dropped again to 6639 (day’s low) and rallied to close at 6672.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signal Trifecta: Two of three SP500 Buy signals triggered today. The best of the three, the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy triggered with the VIX closing above its upper BB. The second best signal, the $NYMO based SP500 Buy, also triggered with the NYMO closing below its lower BB.
- “Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.” Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. September 30th closed at 6687. Thus, Q4 should close above 6687 and if it reaches the average +6.8% gain that implies a target at 7141 by Dec 31st, 2025.
https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Hindenburg Omen (HO): The HO Signal was triggered on both Wednesday, Oct 30th and Thursday, October 31st. Since the year 2018 (last 30 HO’s), the 2-month SP500 return is a -6% (target of 6412 by Dec 30th) with 80% probability AFTER a HO. John ProV1 👨💻 on X: “@Barchart Hindenburg Omen History https://t.co/pXfTNZzbuV” / X Two more HO’s were triggered on Nov 5th and Nov 6th. That’s 4 HO’s in the past 8 trading days. History shows that clusters of HO’s (more than 3 within 30 days) tend to strengthen the cased for a more significant (more than -5%) pull-back. Subu Trade on X: “Another Hindenburg Omen triggered today. This is the 4th signal since last week. The cluster of Hindenburg Omens grows… 🚨 https://t.co/3he9DwpSZ7” / X Overall history shows the HO is only about 25% accurate in predicting a significant correction of > -10%
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% (target 6440) and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6920. The minor 4 wave is playing out as a contracting triangle with the minute (a) of minor 4 low at 6631, minute (b) wave of minor 4 complete at 6870 and minute (c) of minor 4 complete at 6639. The minute (d) of minor 4 should target the 6830 area and minute (e) of minor 4 should hold above 6639. Once the minor 4 triangle completes the minor 5 wave up will move above 6920 toward the minor 5=minor 1 target of 7277. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6631.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is the minor 4 is still unfolding as a minute (a)-(b)-(c) zig-zag to the 23% Fib retrace target at 6520. The minute (a) wave down completed at 6631. The minute (b) wave up completed at 6870. The minute (c) wave down is underway to break below 6631 and should at least target the minute (c)=(a) at 5581 and likely the 23% Fib at 6502. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6870.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 dialy chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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