November 5th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on November 5, 2025
4:35 pm EST: The SP500 opened flat from 6771, quickly hit 6763 (day’s low), rallied to 6829 (day’s high), then faded to lower to 6796.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- “Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.” Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6687, so that implies a target at 7141 by Dec 31st, 2025.
https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Hindenburg Omen (HO): The HO Signal was triggered on both Wednesday, Oct 30th and Thursday, October 31st. Since the year 2018 (last 30 HO’s), the 2-month SP500 return is a -6% (target of 6412 by Dec 30th) with 80% probability AFTER a HO. Overall history the HO is only about 25% accurate in predicting a significant correction of > -10%. John ProV1 👨💻 on X: “@Barchart Hindenburg Omen History https://t.co/pXfTNZzbuV” / X
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6764, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave played out as ascending triangle that completed at 6656. The minor 5 wave is underway with a target at 7302, where minor 5 = minor 1. Within minor 5, the minute (1) wave topped at 6920. The minute (2) wave pull-back has reached the 62% Fib at 6763. It may be competed at 6763 or might test the 78% Fib at 6714. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6656.
- The alternate (blue) count is that minor 3 of major [1]-P5 topped at 6920 and a minor 4 wave is underway that will pull-back to the 23% Fib at 6502 before the minor 5 wave move above 6902 to complete major [1]. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6920.
- The alternate (red) count is that major [1]-P5 topped at 6920 and a major [2] wave pull-back is underway that should at least target the 38% Fib at 6128. Note: The alternate (red) is valid below 6920.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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