September 30th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on September 30, 2025
7:20 pm EST: The SP500 opened flat from 6661, traded sideways above 6641 (day’s low), then rallied late to hit 6691 (day’s high) and closed at 6688.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality (September): Post Election Years show weakness from mid-August to late September. https://x.com/ISABELNET_SA/status/1962799727705051428
- SP500 in September After An August All-Time High: When S&P 500 in Aug up >1% and at least 5 ATHs (like ’25), the following month of September has never been higher, Avg Loss -2.3% (Target is 6312). https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1962693473083019679
- SP500 Seasonality (2nd half of September): The second half of September is historically the weakest part of the year. Wayne Whaley on X: “THE S&P IN THE 2ND HALF OF SEPTEMBER VS TRAILING PERFORMANCE The second half of September has historically been the weakest S&P time frame of the year, going 20-31 over the last 51 years for an avg 1.0% loss with the 3% moves 0-8 to the downside. Worth noting, those losses https://t.co/bkZfPpYh6K” / X
- NYMO: On Thurs, 9/25 the NYMO closed at -51 below its lower BB at -38. This was a second consecutive close below the lower BB and below -40 triggering a SP500 Buy Signal. On Friday, 9/26, the NYMO closed back inside its lower BB confirming this SP500 Buy Signal.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6409, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 at 6394. The minor 4 wave completed as an expanded flat wave at 6212. The minor 5 wave up is underway with a target of 6858, where minor 5=1. Within the minor 5 wave, minute (1) completed at 6481, minute (2) at 6344, minute (3) at 6699 and now minute (4) at 6569. The final minute (5) wave of minor 5 is underway that should break above 6699 and head for 6858. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 6569.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 3 of major [1] completed at 6699, just below were minor 3=2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave is underway with a target at the 23% Fib retrace of 6332. The drop from 6699 to 6569 completed the minute (w) of minor 4 wave. The rebound to 6677, completed the minute (x) wave between the 78% (6670) and 88% Fib (6683). The next wave lower to break below 6569 would be the minute (y) wave. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid below 6699.
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SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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