August 7th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on August 7, 2025
5:15 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6345 to 6374, quickly hit 6390 (day’s high), dropped to 6310 (day’s low) and closed at 6340.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that thee P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6409, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 at 6394. The minor 4 wave completed as an expanded flat wave at 6212. The minor 5 wave up is underway with a minor 5=1 target at 6848. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6212.
- The alternate (blue) count is that the minor 4 wave shill has some room to move lower to the 23% Fib retracement at 6108. The initial drop from 6427 to 6212 was the minute (a) wave of minor 4. The current move higher was the minute (b) wave or minor 4 that ended at 6390 just shy of the 88% Fib at 6401. Now the final minute (c) wave of minor 4 should break below the 6212 level. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid below 6427.
House Keeping: I will be out of town until late Monday (Aug 11th) evening. The next blog post will be on Tuesday, Aug 12th.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
QQQ weekly chart:
IWM 15-min chart
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
IWM weekly chart:
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