May 6th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on May 6, 2025
6:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5650 to 5605, quickly hit 5586 (day’s low), rose to hit 5649 (day’s high), then traded sideways and closed at 5605.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5700. Wave minute (2) should retrace to the 23%/38%/50% Fib area of 5562/5473.5401. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5102.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that the P4 wave is taking the form a large contracting triangle, major [A]-[B]-[C]-[D]-[E]. The major [A] wave down completed at 4835. The major [B] wave up completed at 5700. The major [C] should retrace to the 23%/38%/50% Fib area of 5503/5371/5292. Note: The P4 large contracting triangle is valid as long as the orthodox low of major [E]-P4 completes above the P1 high of 4819.
House Keeping: I will be away from the office on vacation the week of Monday, May 5th through Friday, May 9th. There will be limited blog posts and comments during that time.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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