April 17th, 2025: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on April 17, 2025
6:00 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5275 to 5293, quickly hit 5308, dropped to 5255 (day’s low), rallied to 5328 (day’s high) and dropped to close at 5283.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: The NYMO closed above zero three consecutive days on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday April 14th/15th/17th and then on Thursday April 17th the NYMO closed at +30. Close above zero then above +20 are indicative of a new impulse wave higher.
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT): On Tuesday, April 8th the ZBT level was below 0.40 at 0.38. Today, April 17th, 7 trading days later the ZBT is at 0.53. The ZBT has a 10 trading day window to move from below 0.40 to above 0.615 in order to trigger. With the market closed tomorrow April 18th, the ZBT has until the end of day of Wednesday, April 23rd to complete. Below is the link to follow the ZBT progress:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21BINYBT&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p01088226487&a=1530371801&r=1699290200747
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5115, between the 50%/62% Fib retrace of 5158 to 5080. Wave minor 3 up is underway with a target at 6162, where minor 5 =1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5459. Wave minute (2) completed at 5221, between the 62% and 78% Fib retracement of 5246 to 5191. The minute (3) wave up is underway headed above 5481, to a target where (3)=2.23(1) at 5988. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the P1 high of 5115.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that the P4 wave is taking the form a large contracting triangle, major [A]-[B]-[C]-[D]-[E]. The major [A] wave down completed at 4835. The major [B] wave up is underway with a target at 5761, where minor C=A. Minor A of major [B] completed at 5481 and minor B completed at 5115 or could form a contracting triangle. Once minor B completes, the minor C wave up will target C=A at 5761. Note: The P4 large contracting triangle is valid as long as the orthodox low of major [E]-P4 completes above the P1 high of 4819.
House Keeping: The US Markets are closed on Friday, April 18th. The next blog update will be on Monday, April 21st.
Have a great long 3-day weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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