April 14th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on April 14, 2025
3:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5362 to 5441, quickly hit 5459 (day’s high), dropped to 5358 to close the gap up from 5362, then rose to 54136…
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: On Tuesday, April 8th the VIX closed at 52.33 vs the upper BB of 45.46. That’s four consecutive days above its upper BB, triggering a VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal. On Wednesday, April 9th the VIX closed at 33.62 well below the 46.24 upper BB. This confirms step 2 of the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal. On Thursday, April 10th the VIX closed red confirming the fianal step 3.
- SP500 BB: On Tuesday, April 8th, the SP500 closed at 4983 vs the lower BB at 5091. That’s four consecutive days below its lower BB, triggering a SP500 Buy Signal. On Wednesday, April 9th the SP500 closed at 5457 well above the 5083 lower BB. This confirms the SP500 BB based SP500 Buy Signal!
- NYMO: On Tuesday, April 8th the NYMO closed near -95 which should be below its lower BB. That’s two consecutive das below its lower BB and below the -40 oversold level, triggering a SP500 Buy Signal. On Wednesday, April 9th closed at -31 well above the -83 lower BB. This confirms the NYMO based SP500 Buy Signal!
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5115, between the 50%/62% Fib retrace of 5158 to 5080. Wave minor 3 up is underway with a target at 6162, where minor 5 =1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3, Wave minute (1) up has a target at 5646. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the P1 high of 5115.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that the P4 wave is taking the form a large contracting triangle, major [A]-[B]-[C]-[D]-[E]. The major [A] wave down completed at 4835. The major [B] wave up is underway with a target at 5761. Note: The P4 large contracting triangle is valid as long as the orthodox low of major [E]-P4 completes above the P1 high of 4819.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-mim chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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