April 8th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on April 8, 2025
5:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5062 to 5192, moved up to 5267 (day’s high), then drifted lower the rest of the day to hit 4910 (day’s low) and closed at 4983.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: VIX closed at 52.33 vs the upper BB of 45.46. That’s four consecutive days above its upper BB, triggering a VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal. Needs to close below its upper BB to confirm step 1.
- SP500 BB: SP500 closed at 4983 vs the lower BB at 5091. That’s four consecutive days below its lower BB, triggering a SP500 Buy Signal. Needs to close above its lower BB to confirm.
- NYMO: NYMO closed near -95 which should be below its lower BB. That’s two consecutive das below its lower BB and below the -40 oversold level, triggering a SP500 Buy Signal. Will need a NYMO close above its lower BB to confirm.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The major [A]-P4 completed at 5505. The major [B]-P4 wave up is completed at 5787, just below the 50% Fib retrace of 5826. The major [C]-P4 wave down completed at 4835. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the P1 high of 4819.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that the P4 wave is taking the form a large contracting triangle, major [A]-[B]-[C]-[D]-[E]. The major [A] wave should target 4747, where minor C=1.62A. Note: The P4 large contracting triangle is valid as long as the orthodox low of major [E]-P4 completes above the P1 high of 4819.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
QQQ weekly chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
IWM weekly chart:
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