April 4th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on April 4, 2025
5:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5396 to 5293, dropped all day to 5069 (day’s low) and closed near the low at 5074.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: VIX closed at 45.31 vs the upper BB of 35.24. That’s two consecutive days above its upper BB triggering a VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal. Needs to close below its upper BB to confirm step 1.
- SP500 BB: SP500 closed at 5074 vs the lower BB at 5313. That’s two consecutive days below its lower BB triggering a SP500 Buy Signal. Needs to close above its lower BB to confirm.
- NYMO: NYMO closed near -65 which is near the lower BB.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that P3-C3 of SCV completed at 6147. The P4 wave is underway and I’m expecting it to take the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag to hold the 38% Fib retrace at 5138 area. The major [A]-P4 completed at 5505. The major [B]-P4 wave up is completed at 5787, just below the 50% Fib retrace of 5826. The major [C]-P4 wave down likely completed at 5070, just below the minor [C]=[A] 5145 target and the 38% Fib at 5138. Wave minor 1 of major [C] ended at 5489. Wave minor 2 completed at 5695 between the 62%/78% Fibs at 5674 and 5721. Wave minor 3 down completed at 5201. The wave minor 4 up completed at 5175 and the final minor 5 wave completed at 5070. Thus, the P4 low is likely in place at 5070. Note: Breaking above 5489 (minor 1 high), would be an indication that the P4 low is in place per the primary (white/green) count.
- The alternate (red) wave count variation that the wave minor 3 of major [C]-P4 down is underway and likely completed at 5070. The minor 4 target is a 23% Fib retrace to 5214 before minor 5 drop to the 4954 pivot to complete minor [C]-P4. Note: The alternate (red) count for is valid about 4818.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
QQQ weekly chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
IWM weekly chart:
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