April 1st, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on April 1, 2025
2:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5611 to 5597, quickly hit 5558 (day’s low), rallied to 5650 and then began to fade lower to 5599…
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Strong Breadth After -10% SP500 Drop: Strong breadth! We’ve just seen 2 consecutive days (Friday & Monday, March 14th & 17th) where over 90% of S&P 500 stocks advanced. Historically, the S&P was up 100% of the time by an average of +4.5%, 2 months later. The signal price and date was 5676 on March 17th. Thus, the SP500 target is 5913 by mid-May. https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1901730046152184053
- Chart Pattern: Potential Double Bottom (5505 & 5489 with 5787 Neckline) Target at 6080. Needs to break above 5787 to confirm.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Performance After a -10% drop from All-Time High (No Recession vs Recession): No Recession = The SP500 Rallies +5% Above (6454) Old Highs (6147) within a year. Recession = The SP500 drifts lower to a -15% total drop (5225) within a year. https://x.com/LanceRoberts/status/1903051179375890840
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV has played out as a large, 3-month long flat wave that completed at 5489. The major [5] wave up is underway with major [5]=[1] target at 6604. The minor 1 of major [5] wave should target the double bottom target at 6080. The minute (1) of minor 1 of major [5] wave up should target the 5767 pivot area. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 5489.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that P3-C3 of SCV completed at 6147. The P4 wave is underway and I’m expecting it to take the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag to hold the 38% Fib retrace at 5138. The major [A]-P4 completed at 5505. The major [B]-P4 wave up is completed at 5787, just below the 50% Fib retrace of 5826. The major [C]-P4 wave down is underway towards the 38% Fib at 5138. Wave minor 1 of major [C] ended at 5489. Wave minor 2 completed at 5650 between the 50%/672% Fibs at 5638 and 5674. Wave minor 3 down is underway targeting Minor 3 = 1.38M1 at 5239. Note: The alternate (red) count for is valid below 5787.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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