March 31st, 2025: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 31, 2025
3:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5580 to 5528, quickly hit 5489 (day’s low), then rallied the rest of the day to 5612 and closed at xxxx.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Chart Pattern: Double Top (6100 & 6147 with 5773 Neckline) Target at 5446.
- Strong Breadth After -10% SP500 Drop: Strong breadth! We’ve just seen 2 consecutive days (Friday & Monday, March 14th & 17th) where over 90% of S&P 500 stocks advanced. Historically, the S&P was up 100% of the time by an average of +4.5%, 2 months later. The signal price and date was 5676 on March 17th. Thus, the SP500 target is 5913 by mid-May. https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1901730046152184053
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Performance After a -10% drop from All-Time High (No Recession vs Recession): No Recession = The SP500 Rallies +5% Above (6454) Old Highs (6147) within a year. Recession = The SP500 drifts lower to a -15% total drop (5225) within a year. https://x.com/LanceRoberts/status/1903051179375890840
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV has played out as a large, 3-month long flat wave that completed at 5489. The major [5] wave up is underway with major [5]=[1] target at 6604. The minute (1) of minor 1 of major [5] wave up should target the 5669 pivot area. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 5489.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV is targeting the double top target at 5446.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that P3-C3 of SCV completed at 6147. The P4 wave is underway and I’m expecting it to take the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag to hold the 38% Fib retrace at 5138. The major [A]-P4 completed at 5505. The major [B]-P4 wave up is completed at 5787, just below the 50% Fib retrace of 5826. The major [C]-P4 wave down is underway, headed below 5505 towards the 38% Fib at 5138. Note: The alternate (red) count for is valid below 5787.
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SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
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