March 28th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 28, 2025
2:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5693 to 5679, then continued to drop through mid-day hitting 5574…
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Chart Pattern: Double Top (6100 & 6147 with 5773 Neckline) Target at 5446.
- Strong Breadth After -10% SP500 Drop: Strong breadth! We’ve just seen 2 consecutive days (Friday & Monday, March 14th & 17th) where over 90% of S&P 500 stocks advanced. Historically, the S&P was Up 100% of the time 2 months later. https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1901730046152184053
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Performance After a -10% drop from All-Time High (No Recession vs Recession): No Recession = The SP500 Rallies +5% Above (6454) Old Highs (6147) within a year. Recession = The SP500 drifts lower to a -15% total drop (5225) within a year. https://x.com/LanceRoberts/status/1903051179375890840
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV has played out as a large, 3-month long flat wave that completed at 5505. The major [5] wave up is underway with major [5]=[1] target at 6620. The minute (1) of minor 1 of major [5] wave up completed at 5787. The minute (2) wave down is testing the 78%/88% Fib retrace at 5567 to 5539. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 5505.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV targeting the double top target at 5446. Minute (4) of minor C of major [4] completed at 5787. Now the minute (5) down of minor C is headed for 5446.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that P3-C3 of SCV completed at 6147. The P4 wave is underway and I’m expecting it to take the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag to hold the 38% Fib retrace at 5138. The major [A]-P4 completed at 5505. The major [B]-P4 wave up is completed at 5787, just below the 50% Fib retrace of 5826. The major [C]-P4 wave down is underway, headed below 5505 towards the 38% Fib at 5138. Note: The alternate (red) count for is valid below 5787.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
QQQ weekly chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
IWM weekly chart:
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