March 27th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 27, 2025
5:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5712 to 5696, quickly hit 5671 (day’s low), rallied to 5732 (day’s high), then faded and closed at 5693.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Strong Breadth After -10% SP500 Drop: Strong breadth! We’ve just seen 2 consecutive days (Friday & Monday, March 14th & 17th) where over 90% of S&P 500 stocks advanced. Historically, the S&P was Up 100% of the time 2 months later. https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1901730046152184053
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Performance After a -10% drop from All-Time High (No Recession vs Recession): No Recession = The SP500 Rallies +5% Above (6454) Old Highs (6147) within a year. Recession = The SP500 drifts lower to a -15% total drop (5225) within a year. https://x.com/LanceRoberts/status/1903051179375890840
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV has played out as a large, 3-month long flat wave that completed at 5505. The major [5] wave up is underway with major [5]=[1] target at 6620. The minute (1) of minor 1 of major [5] wave up completed at 5703. The minute (2) wave down completed at 5598, just below the 50% Fib of 5604. The minute (3) wave up is underway with a target of (3)=1.62(1) at 5919. The minor 1 of major [5] should target the 6017 pivot area. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 5603.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that P3-C3 of SCV completed at 6147. The P4 wave is underway and I’m expecting it to take the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag to hold the 38% Fib retrace at 5138. The major [A]-P4 completed at 5505. The major [B]-P4 wave up is underway to the 62% Fib at 5903. Minor W of major [B] completed at 5785. Minor X is completed at 5671 or could test the 50% Fib at 5646. Then minor Y will move higher towards the 62% Fib at 5903. Note: The alternate (blue) count for is valid above 5505.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that P3-C3 of SCV completed at 6147. The P4 wave is underway and I’m expecting it to take the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag to hold the 38% Fib retrace at 5138. The major [A]-P4 completed at 5505. The major [B]-P4 wave up is completed at 5787, just below the 50% Fib retrace of 5826. The major [C]-P4 wave down is underway, headed below 5505 towards 5138. Note: The alternate (red) count for is valid below 5787.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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