March 18th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 18, 2025
3:20 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5676 to 5655, dropped to 5598 (day’s low), drifted sideways below 5630…
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signals (Two SP500 Buy Signals have been confirmed as of Wednesday, March 12th!):
- VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal: On Monday, March 10th the VIX closed (27.86) above its upper BB (26.72) once again resetting the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal. On Tuesday, March 11th the VIX closed (26.93) below its upper BB (27.84) and completed step 2. On Wednesday, March 12th the VIX close red completing the final confirming step 3 of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy!
- SP500 BB, SP500 Buy Signal: On Tuesday, March 11th, the SP500 closed at 5572, which was below its lower BB of 5595. On Wednesday, March 12th, the SP500 closed at 5599 above its lower BB at 5548 confirming the SP500 BB based SP500 Buy signal!
- NYMO BB, SP500 Buy Signal: N/A
- NYMO: The NYMO closed at +20 on Monday, March 17th. Closes above zero are bullish and multiple closes above +20 are typical of a new bull impulse wave higher.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV has played out as a large, 3-month long flat wave that completed at 5505. The major [5] wave up is underway with major [5]=[1] target at 6620. The minute (1) of minor 1 of major [5] wave up completed at 5703. The minute (2) wave down should target the 50%/62 Fib retrace at 5604 to 5580 (has hit 5598 so far) or alternate (blue) could target the 78%/88% Fib retrace of 5548 to 5529. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 5505.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that P3-C3 of SCV completed at 6147. The P4 wave is underway and I’m expecting it to take the form of a large contracting triangle. This -10.4% drop from 6147 to 5505 is the major [A]-P4 wave. The major [B] wave up of the triangle is under way with the minor A of major [B] complete at 5703. The minor B of major [B] wave down should target the 50%/62% Fib retrace at 5604/5580 (has hit 5598 so far). Note: The major [A]-P4 wave be the Orthodox low of the P4 triangle wave.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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