March 11th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 11, 2025
4:30 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 5614, dropped to hit 5528 (day’s low), rallied to 5636 and closed at 5572.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signals (No SP500 Signals have been confirmed as of Tuesday, March 10th):
- VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal: On Monday, March 10th the VIX closed (27.86) above its upper BB (26.72) once again resetting the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal. On Tuesday, March 11th the VIX closed (26.93) below its upper BB (27.84) and completed step 2. The VIX needs to close red on Wednesday, March 12th to complete the final confirming step 3.
- SP500 BB, SP500 Buy Signal: On Monday, March 10th, the SP500 closed at 5614 back below its lower BB (5658) once again resetting the SP500 BB, SP500 Buys Signal. On Tuesday, March 11th, the SP500 closed at 5572, which was still below its lower BB of 5595.
- NYMO BB, SP500 Buy Signal: On Tuesday, March 11th, the NYMO closed at -58 which is above its lower BB at -65. Thus, no SP500 Buy Signal.
- NYMO +DIV: On Monday, March 10th, the NYMO +DIV vs the SP500 was violated and lost.
- Chart Pattern: Double Top at 6100, with a target at 5573 – (6100 – 5773) = 5446.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative ($NYAD): The broad market $NYAD has not yet made a confirming new all-time high. SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV has played out as a large, 3-month long flat wave that has hit 5528. Major [4] complete at 5528 or could test the double top target of 5446. Note: Breaking above 5666 would help to confirm the major [4] low.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that P3-C3 of SCV completed at 6147. The P4 wave is underway that I’m expecting to take the form of a large contracting triangle. This -10.0% drop from 6147 to 5528 thus far is major [A]-P4 that could be complete near the 23% Fib retrace of P3 at 5535 or major [A]-P4 could test the double top target at 5446. Note: The major [A]-P4 wave will likely be the Orthodox low of the P4 triangle wave.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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