March 6th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 6, 2025
5:00 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5842 to 5786, dropped to hit 5746, rallied to 5812, dropped to 5712 (day’s low) and closed at 5738.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signals (Two of Three Signals Triggered on Thursday, March 6th with a NYMO +DIV):
- VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal: On Thursday, March 6th the VIX closed (24.87) above its upper BB (24.46) once again resetting the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal.
- SP500 BB, SP500 Buy Signal: On Thursday, March 6th, the SP500 closed at 5738 back below its lower BB (5753) once again resetting the SP500 BB, SP500 Buys Signal.
- NYMO BB, SP500 Buy Signal: On Tuesday, March 4th, the NYMO closed (-51) back below its lower BB once again resetting the SP500 Buy Signal. On Wednesday, March 5th, the NYMO closed above its lower BB confirming the SP500 Buy signal.
- NYMO +DIV: On Thursday, March 6th it looks like the NYMO closed at -45 with the SP500 close at 5738 versus a Tuesday, March 4th close at -51 with the SP500 close at 5778. That’s a potential NYMO +DIV wrt to a lower SP500 closed.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative ($NYAD): The broad market $NYAD has not yet made a confirming new all-time high. SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV has played out as a large, 3-month long flat wave that likely ended today at 5712, just above where minor C=1.38A at 5695. The major [5] wave up is underway with a target of 6848, where [5]=[1]. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5712.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4] will target the 23% Fib retracement of major [3] at 5641. The minor C=1.62A target is at 5616. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 5812.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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