March 4th, 2025: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 4, 2025
6:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5849 to 5812, dropped to hit 5733 (day’s low), then rallied to 5865 (day’s high) and closed at 5778.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signals (All three Signals Triggered on Tuesday, March 4th!):
- VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal: On Tuesday, March 4th the VIX closed (23.51) above its upper BB once again resetting the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal. Step 2 is a VIX close back below its upper BB.
- SP500 BB, SP500 Buy Signal: On Tuesday, March 4th, the SP500 closed back below its lower BB once again resetting the SP500 BB, SP500 Buys Signal. The confirming step is the SP500 close back above its lower BB.
- NYMO: On Tuesday, March 4th, the NYMO closed (-51) back below its lower BB once again resetting the SP500 Buy Signal. The confirming step is the NYMO closing back above its lower BB.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative ($NYAD): The broad market $NYAD has not yet made a confirming new all-time high. SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV has played out as a large, 3-month long flat wave that likely ended today at 5733, just below where minor C=1.23A at 5744. The major [5] wave up is underway with a target of 6848, where [5]=[1]. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5733.
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
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