February 25th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on February 25, 2025
6:20 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 5983, quickly hit 5992 (day’s high), dropped to 5908 (day’s low), rallied to 5980 and fell to close at 5955.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- February Seasonality: Second half February is typically weak: https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1892615024536907893
- Bull Flag Pattern: The Bull Flag from 6100 to 5773 has a target at 6427 on a decisive break above 6100.
- SP500 Buy Signals: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: The VIX again closed (Feb 25th) slightly above its upper BB today, for a 2nd consecutive day, which is a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal trigger step 1.
- SP500 BB: The SP500 closed (Feb 25th) slightly below its lower BB today for the 1st time, setting up a BB based SP500 Buy Signal trigger step 1.
- NYMO: The NYMO closed (Feb 25th) higher confirming its SP500 Buy Signal with a +DIV.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative ($NYAD): The broad market $NYAD has not yet made a confirming new all-time high. SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5573. The major [5] wave up is underway with a target of 6464, where [5]=0.62[1]. The minor 1 of major [5] completed at 6128. The minor 2 wave retraced to 5908, which is the 62% Fib. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a target at 6359, where minor 3=1.38*minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5908.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4] is playing out as flat or expanded wave that will re-test the 5773 low. The minor C=A wave target is at 5818, C=1.23A wave target is 5741 and the 23% Fib retrace is considerably lower at 5641.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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