February 18th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on February 18, 2025
5:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 6114 to 6118, quickly hit 6125, drifted sideways, dipped to 6100 (day’s low), then rallied to close on the high at 6129 (All-time High).
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: Along with the SP500 all-time high (6129) the broad market NYSE A-D Line set a new high on February 18th. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- Triangle Pattern: Triangle from 6100 to 5773 with a target at 6427 on a decisive break above 6100.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor [4] of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out as a triangle. The minor A of major [4] low is in place at 5773 (i.e. the Orthodox major [4] low). The minor B wave reached a marginal new high at 6128. The minor C wave dropped to complete at 5924, the minor D wave rose to complete at 6100 and the minor E wave dropped at 6003 to complete the major [4] triangle. The minor 1 of major [5] wave up is underway towards the 6178 area. The major [5] wave target is the triangle target at 6427. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 6003.
- The alternate (blue) count is that the major [4] ascending triangle has a little more work to do sideways to slightly lower before breaking out above 6128. The move up to 6129 is completion of the minor D of major [4] wave triangle and now a minor E wave will retrace to the 50% Fib near 6066.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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