February 14th, 2025: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on February 14, 2025
4:55 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 6115, rallied to 6127 (day’s high), dropped to 6108 (day’s low), then drifted sideways and closed at 6114.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The broad market NYSE A-D line Cumulative is yet to confirm the new all-time SP500 high at 6128 by making a new all-time high. However, on close of Feb 13th, 2025 it’s very close! $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- Triangle Pattern: Triangle from 6100 to 5773 with a target at 6427 on a decisive break above 6100.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor [4] of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out as a triangle. The minor A of major [4] low is in place at 5773 (i.e. the Orthodox major [4] low). The minor B wave reached a marginal new high at 6128. The minor C wave dropped to complete at 5924, the minor D wave rose to complete at 6100 and the minor E wave dropped at 6003 to complete the major [4] triangle. The minor 1 of major [5] wave up is underway towards the 6178 area. The major [5] wave target is the triangle target at 6427. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 6003.
- The alternate (blue) count is that the major [4] ascending triangle has a little more work to do sideways to slightly lower before breaking out above 6128.
House Keeping: The US equity markets are closed on Monday, February 17th for the President’s Day Holiday. The next blog update will on Tuesday, February 18th.
Have a great long 3-day weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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