February 12th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart
Posted by pugsma on February 12, 2025
5:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 6068 to 6026, quickly hit 6003 (day’s low), rose to hit 6063 (day’s high) and closed at 6051.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The broad market NYSE A-D line Cumulative is yet to confirm the new all-time SP500 high at 6128 by making a new all-time high. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- Triangle Pattern: Triangle from 6100 to 5773 with a target at 6427 on a decisive break above 6100.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor [4] of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out as an ascending triangle. The minor A of major [4] low is in place at 5773 (i.e. the Orthodox major [4] low). The minor B wave reached a marginal new high at 6128. The minor C wave dropped to complete at 5924, the minor D wave rose to complete at 6100 and the minor E wave completed at 6003 to complete the major [4] triangle. The minor 1 of major [5] wave up is underway toward the 6200 area. The major [5] wave target is the triangle target at 6427. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 6003.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is a slight variation of the primary (white/green) where the minor E wave still as some work to do to the downside below 6003 but above 5924. The 78% Fib target to complete the minor E wave is at 5963. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above 5924.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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