February 7th, 2025: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on February 7, 2025
3:35 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 6083, quickly hit 6100 (day’s high), then dropped steadily the entire day to hit 6020 and closed at xxxx.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The broad market NYSE A-D line Cumulative is yet to confirm the new all-time SP500 high at 6128 by making a new all-time high. However, it’s very close. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- Bull Flag: Bull Flag from 6100 to 5773 with a target at 6427 was confirmed (Jan 22nd, 2025) on the break above 6100.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor [4] of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out as an ascending triangle. The minor A of major [4] low is in place at 5773 (i.e. the Orthodox major [4] low). The minor B wave reached a marginal new high at 6128. The minor C wave dropped to complete at 5924 and the minor D wave rose to complete at 6100. The minor E wave is headed back down to hold above the minor C low at 5924 to complete the major [4] triangle. The 50%/62%/78% Fib retrace targets for minor E are at 6012, 5991 and 5963. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5924.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out as an ascending triangle. The minor A of major [4] low is in place at 5773. The minor B wave reached a marginal new high at 6128. The minor C wave is headed lower to complete at the 62%/78% Fib retrace area of 5908 to 5951 and hold above the minor A low at 5773. Once minor C completes, the minor D wave will test the 6100 pivot once again. Followed by the minor E wave to hold above the minor C low to complete the major [4] triangle. The alternate (blue) count major [4] triangle will last through most of Q1-2025 agree with the 4-hr Presidential Cycle Seasonality. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above 5773.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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