February 4th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on February 4, 2025
5:50 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 5994, dipped slightly to 5991 (day’s low), then rallied the rest of the day to 6042 (day’s high) and closed at 6038.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The broad market NYSE A-D line Cumulative is yet to confirm the new all-time SP500 high at 6128 by making a new all-time high. However, it’s very close. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- Bull Flag: Bull Flag from 6100 to 5773 with a target at 6427 was confirmed (Jan 22nd, 2025) on the break above 6100.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor [4] of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV played out as a Double Zig-Zag to 5773, where the minor Y = minor W wave. The major [5] wave up in underway with a major [5]=0.62[1] at 6464. The minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 6128. The minor 2 wave completed at 5924, which within the 50% to 62% Fib retrace area of 5951 to 5907. The minor 3 wave up is underway with M3=M1 target at 6279. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5924.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out as an ascending triangle. The minor A of major [4] low is in place at 5773. The minor B wave reached a marginal new high at 6128. The minor C wave completed at 5924. Now the minor D wave is headed back for the 6100 pivot area. Once minor D complete, the minor E will drop to hold above the minor C at 5964 to complete the major [4] triangle. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above 5924.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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