February 3rd, 2025: SP-500 Chart Udpate
Posted by pugsma on February 3, 2025
11:20 am EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 6040 to 5971, dropped to 5924 (day’s low), rallied to 6022 and closed at 5994.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The broad market NYSE A-D line Cumulative is yet to confirm the new all-time SP500 high at 6128 by making a new all-time high. However, it’s very close. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- Bull Flag: Bull Flag from 6100 to 5773 with a target at 6427 was confirmed (Jan 22nd, 2025) on the break above 6100.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st with the SP500 close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- AAII Sentiment (Week of Jan 13th, 2025): The week of Jan 13th, 2025 the Investor Sentiment is the most bearish since November 2023 when the SP500 hit the P2 low at 3492! Only 25% Bulls and 40% Bears this week. This is great news for the bullish primary (white/green) and alt(blue) wave counts. aaii.com/sentimentsurvey”
https://x.com/aaiisentiment/status/1879880966703034385?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor [4] of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV played out as a Double Zig-Zag to 5773, where the minor Y = minor W wave. The major [5] wave up in underway with a major [5]=0.62[1] at 6464. The minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 6128. The minor 2 wave looks to have completed at 5924, which within the 50% to 62% Fib retrace area of 5951 to 5907. The minor 3 wave up is underway with M3=M1 target at 6279. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5773.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV played out as a Double Zig-Zag to 5773, where the minor Y = minor W wave. The major [5] wave up in underway with a major [5]=[1] target at 5888. The minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 6128. The minor 2 wave looks to have completed at 5924, which within the 50% to 62% Fib retrace area of 5951 to 5907. The minor 3 wave up is underway with M3=M1 target at 6279. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a M3=1.62M1 target at 6499. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above 5773.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
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