January 31st, 2025: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 31, 2025
12:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 6071 to 6096, rallied to 6021 (day’s high)…
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The broad market NYSE A-D line Cumulative is yet to confirm the new all-time SP500 high at 6128 by making a new all-time high. However, it’s very close! $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- Bull Flag: Bull Flag from 6100 to 5773 with a target at 6427 was confirmed (Jan 22nd, 2025) on the break above 6100.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1875958963080225199
- AAII Sentiment: The week of Jan 13th, 2025 the Investor Sentiment is the most bearish since November 2023 when the SP500 hit the P2 low at 3492! Only 25% Bulls and 40% Bears this week. This is great news for the bullish primary (white/green) and alt(blue) wave counts. aaii.com/sentimentsurvey”
https://x.com/aaiisentiment/status/1879880966703034385?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Just look how important a positive January is for the SP500 yearly gains. Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 alt (blue) P3 top near EOY. Alt(blue) count looking great here on January 31st, with the SP500 well above 5881.
https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5773. The minor 5 wave up is underway and will complete major [5]-P3-C3 at 6234, where major [5]=[1]. Within minor 5, minute (1) completed at 6128. The minute (2) completed at 5963, just above the 50% Fib at 5951. The wave minute (3) up is underway and with break above 6128 and should target 6240, where (3)=0.78(1). Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5963.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV played out as a Double Zig-Zag to 5773, where the minor Y = minor W wave. The major [5] wave up in underway with minor 1 heading for the bull flag target area of 6427. Within minor 1 the minute (1) wave completed at 6128 and wave minute (2) completed at 5963. The minute (3) up is underway and with a break above 6128 should start 6308, where (3)=(1). Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above 5963.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
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