January 2nd, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 2, 2025
6:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5881 to 5903, quickly hit 5935 (day’s high), then headed lower to 5830 (day’s low) and rallied to close at 5868.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality (Dec 23rd): The “Santa Rally” time frame is the last 5 trading days of 2024 and the first 2 days of 2025: beginning on Tuesday, December 24th and ending on Friday, January 3rd. The average gain is +1.3% with a 78% probability: Dec 23rd close 5972 + 0.013*5972 = 6050. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1871322312219468049
- SP500 Seasonality #2 (Dec 24th): The S&P 500 gained more than 1% on the first day of the Santa Claus Rally (SCR). Now what? Full SCR period has never been lower, up 7 out of 7. Final 6 days? Higher 5 of 7, with two small losses and up 1.7% on avg: Dec 24th close 6039 + 0.017*6039 = 6142. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1872323859334238441
- SP500 Season #3 (Dec 31st): The SP500 closed in the red 4 consecutive days to end the year 2024. This has only happened 5 other times in the past 100 years. Each time the SP500 rallied each week of January with an average gain of +6.2% by end of January. Projection 5581 + 0.062*5881 = 6245 https://x.com/subutrade/status/1874135463935856814
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZTB): The ZBT was triggered on Friday, December 20th with a close above 0.40 after dropping below 0.40 on Wednesday, December 18th. The ZBT is a very bullish signal, but also very rate. The ZBT would be confirmed within 10 trading days (ending Monday, January 6th), the ZBT level reaches 0.615: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5830, just below the 38% Fib retrace or minor 3 at 5835. The minor 5 wave up is underway and will complete major [5]-P3-C3 at 6234, where major [5]=[1].
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out as a Zig-Zag to the C=A target at 5782. It’s possible it completed at 5830 or could drop a little more to the C=A target at 5782.
- The alternate (red) count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out to a 23% Fib retracement at 5641. Major [4] is taking the form of a Zig-Zag with minor A complete at 5832 and minor B complete at 6050. The minor C leg down is underway with a C=1.62*A target at 5616. There is also a potential head and shoulders (H&S) topping pattern fits with this alt(red) count. The head is at 6100, and neckline is at 5832. On a break and close below 5832, the H&S target is at 5564.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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