December 31st, 2024: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on December 31, 2024
4:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5907 to 5921, quickly hit 5929 (day’s high), then drifted lower the rest of the day to 5869 (day’s low) and closed at 5881.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signal Trifecta: The Trifecta was triggered on Wednesday, Dec 18th. Two of three SP500 Buy Signals were confirmed on Friday, Dec 20th and the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal was confirmed on Monday, Dec 23rd.
- SP500 Seasonality (Dec 23rd): The “Santa Rally” time frame is the last 5 trading days of 2024 and the first 2 days of 2025: beginning on Tuesday, December 24th and ending on Friday, January 3rd. The average gain is +1.3% with a 78% probability: Dec 23rd close 5972 + 0.013*5972 = 6050. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1871322312219468049
- SP500 Seasonality #2 (Dec 24th): The S&P 500 gained more than 1% on the first day of the Santa Claus Rally (SCR). Now what? Full SCR period has never been lower, up 7 out of 7. Final 6 days? Higher 5 of 7, with two small losses and up 1.7% on avg: Dec 24th close 6039 + 0.017*6039 = 6142. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1872323859334238441
- SP500 Season #3 (Dec 31st): The SP500 closed in the red 4 consecutive days to end the year 2024. This has only happened 5 other times in the past 100 years. Each time the SP500 rallied each week of January with an average gain of +6.2% by end of January. Projection 5581 + 0.062*5881 = 6245 https://x.com/subutrade/status/1874135463935856814
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZTB): The ZBT was triggered on Friday, December 20th with a close above 0.40 after dropping below 0.40 on Wednesday, December 18th. The ZBT is a very bullish signal, but also very rate. The ZBT would be confirmed within 10 trading days (ending Monday, January 6th), the ZBT level reaches 0.615: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5832, just below the 38% Fib retrace or minor 3 at 5835. The minor 5 wave up is underway and will complete major [5]-P3-C3 at 6234, where major [5]=[1]. The first minute (1) or minor 5 wave completed at 6050 and the minute (2) wave retraced to 5869, between the 78% and 88% Fib. Wave minute (3) up is underway with a target at 6222, where (3)=1.62(1). Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the minor 4 low at 5832.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV played out as an expanded flat ending at 5832. The major [5] wave up is underway that will carry the SP500 to a major [5]=[1] target at 6947. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above 5832.
- The alternate (red) count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out to a 23% Fib retracement at 5641. Major [4] is taking the form of a Zig-Zag with minor A complete at 5832 and minor B complete at 6050. The minor C leg down is underway with a C=1.62*A target at 5616. There is also a potential head and shoulders (H&S) topping pattern fits with this alt(red) count. The head is at 6100, and neckline is at 5832. On a break and close below 5832, the H&S target is at 5564.
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Have a Healthy and Prosperous New Year!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IMW daily chart:
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