December 27th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on December 27, 2024
5:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 6037 to 6007, dropped to 5933 (day’s low), rallied to 5979 and closed at 5971.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signal Trifecta: The Trifecta was triggered on Wednesday, Dec 18th. Two of three SP500 Buy Signals were confirmed on Friday, Dec 20th and the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal was confirmed on Monday, Dec 23rd.
- SP500 Seasonality (Dec 23rd): The “Santa Rally” time frame is the last 5 trading days of 2024 and the first 2 days of 2025: beginning on Tuesday, December 24th and ending on Friday, January 3rd. The average gain is +1.3% with a 78% probability: Dec 23rd close 5972 + 0.013*5972 = 6050. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1871322312219468049
- SP500 Seasonality #2 (Dec 24th): The S&P 500 gained more than 1% on the first day of the Santa Claus Rally (SCR). Now what? Full SCR period has never been lower, up 7 out of 7. Final 6 days? Higher 5 of 7, with two small losses and up 1.7% on avg: Dec 24th close 6039 + 0.017*6039 = 6142. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1872323859334238441
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZTB): The ZBT was triggered on Friday, December 20th with a close above 0.40 after dropping below 0.40 on Wednesday, December 18th. The ZBT is a very bullish signal, but also very rate. The ZBT would be confirmed within 10 trading days (ending Monday, January 6th), the ZBT level reaches 0.615: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5832, just below the 38% Fib retrace or minor 3 at 5835. The minor 5 wave up is underway and will complete major [5]-P3-C3 at 6234, where major [5]=[1]. The first minute (1) or minor 5 wave completed at 6050 and the minute (2) wave retraced to 5933, just below the 50% Fib at 5941. Wave minute (3) up is underway with a target at 6201, where (3)=1.23(1). Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the minor 4 low at 5832.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV played out as an expanded flat ending at 5832. The major [5] wave up is underway that will carry the SP500 to a major [5]=[1] target at 6947. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above 5832.
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Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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