December 17th, 2024: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on December 17, 2024
5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 6075 to 6053, dropped to 6036, rose to 6057 (day’s high), then dropped to 6035 (day’s low) and rose to close at 6050.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Historical Data: The SP-500 closed September in the green (above 5648 on Monday September 30th), thus the SP-500 has posted 8 of 9 green months during calendar year 2024. This has happened only 8 other times in history and all 8 times Q4 was also green by an average gain of +6.6% (or 5762 + 380 = 6142 by Dec 31st, 2024). Link: https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1840400325234044964
- NYMO: The NYMO closed near -80, likely below its lower BB and is extremely oversold. NYMO levels near -60 have set every key SP500 bottom during year 2024.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Chart Pattern: Potential Bullish Ascending Triangle Break-Out above 5666, with a measured move target at 6219.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (11-3-23 and again on 8-19-24): The ZBT signal triggered on Monday, 8-19-24. The ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year (i.e. 5607 to 6953 by Aug 2025) with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2-Q3 (Apr-Sept) and finally a big Q4 rally into year end.
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV is well underway headed for the [5]=[1] target at 6234. The first minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 5652. The minor 2 of major [5] wave completed at 5402, just above the 50% Fib of 5381. The minor 3 wave up is well underway and headed to 6265, where minor 3=1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 5878. The minute (2) wave completed at 5696, near the 38% Fib of 5697. Wave minute (3) completed at 6100. The minute (4) wave looks to have played out as a triangle with the low at 6030, just above the 23% Fib of 6007 or will need to correct further to the 38% Fib of 5947 (alt blue labels). The minute (5) wave up will target the minor 3=1.62*minor 1 target of 6265. Note: The wave counts for minute (4) are valid above the minute (1) high at 5878.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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