November 18th, 2024: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on November 18, 2024
5:15 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 5870, dropped to 5866 (day’s low), climbed to 5908 (day’s high), dropped to 5884 and closed at 5893.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- The SP-500 closed September in the green (above 5648 on Monday September 30th), thus the SP-500 has posted 8 of 9 green months during calendar year 2024. This has happened only 8 other times in history and all 8 times Q4 was also green by an average gain of +6.6% (or 5762 + 380 = 6142 by Dec 31st, 2024). Link: https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1840400325234044964
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Chart Pattern: Potential Bullish Ascending Triangle Break-Out above 5666, with a measured move target at 6219.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (11-3-23 and again on 8-19-24): The ZBT signal triggered on Monday, 8-19-24. The ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year (i.e. 5607 to 6953 by Aug 2025) with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2-Q3 (Apr-Sept) and finally a big Q4 rally into year end.
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV is underway headed for the [5]=[1] target at 6234. The first minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 5652. The minor 2 of major [5] wave completed at 5402, just above the 50% Fib of 5381. The minor 3 wave up is underway and headed 6265, where minor 3=1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 5878. The minute (2) wave completed at 5696, near the 38% Fib of 5697. Wave minute (3) is underway with a (3)=(1) target at 6172. Within minute (3), wave i-(3) completed at 6017. The wave ii-(3) pull-back is complete at 5853 near the 50% Fib retrace of 5867 or will target the 62% Fib retrace at to 5818 (alt blue labels). Once wave ii-(3) completes, wave iii-(3) up will get underway to a new high above 6017. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the minute (2) low at 5696.
House Keeping: The wife and I have an upcoming wedding anniversary vacation planned from Thursday, Nov 21st through Saturday, Nov 30th. We are headed for New York City and then 7 day cruise to the Bermuda. I have limited ability to update charts while on the cruise, but will try to provide a few chart updates and comments.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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