November 4th, 2024: SP500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on November 4, 2024
6:00 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 5728, dropped to 5708, rallied to 5741 (day’s high), then dropped to 5696 (day’s low) and closed at 5712.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- The SP-500 closed September in the green (above 5648 on Monday September 30th), thus the SP-500 has posted 8 of 9 green months during calendar year 2024. This has happened only 8 other times in history and all 8 times Q4 was also green by an average gain of +6.6% (or 5762 + 380 = 6142 by Dec 31st, 2024). Link: https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1840400325234044964
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Chart Pattern: Potential Bullish Ascending Triangle Break-Out above 5666, with a measured move target at 6219.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (11-3-23 and again on 8-19-24): The ZBT signal triggered on Monday, 8-19-24. The ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2-Q3 (Apr-Sept) and finally a big Q4 rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV is underway headed for the [5]=[1] target at 6234. The first minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 5652. The minor 2 of major [5] wave completed at 5402, just above the 50% Fib of 5381. The minor 3 wave up is underway and headed 6138, where minor 3=1.38*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 5878. The minute (2) wave is underway (5696 thus far) and is complete at 5696 near the 38% Fib of 5697 or will drop to the 50%/62% Fib retrace at 5640/5883 (alt blue lables). Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the minor 2 low at 5402.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart
IWM 60-min chart:
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