November 1st, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on November 1, 2024
3:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5705 to 5723, rallied through mid-day to 5772 (day’s high), then dropped to 5724 and closed at 5728.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- The SP-500 closed September in the green (above 5648 on Monday September 30th), thus the SP-500 has posted 8 of 9 green months during calendar year 2024. This has happened only 8 other times in history and all 8 times Q4 was also green by an average gain of +6.6% (or 5762 + 380 = 6142 by Dec 31st, 2024). Link: https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1840400325234044964
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Chart Pattern: Potential Bullish Ascending Triangle Break-Out above 5666, with a measured move target at 6219.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (11-3-23 and again on 8-19-24): The ZBT signal triggered on Monday, 8-19-24. The ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2-Q3 (Apr-Sept) and finally a big Q4 rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV is underway headed for the [5]=[1] target at 6234. The first minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 5652. The minor 2 of major [5] wave completed at 5402, just above the 50% Fib of 5381. The minor 3 wave up is underway and headed 6138, where minor 3=1.38*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 5878. The minute (2) wave is underway (5703 thus far) and is complete at 5703 near the 38% Fib of 5697 or will drop to the 50% Fib retrace at 5640. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the minor 2 low at 5402.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-mnin chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
You must be logged in to post a comment.