October 22nd, 2024: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on October 22, 2024
12:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5854 to 5833, quickly hit 5821 (day’s low), then rallied to 5842…
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signals: The VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal, one of the three SP500 Buy Signals was triggered on Monday, Oct 7th with the VIX closing above its upper BB. The VIX closed back below its upper BB on Tuesday, Oct 8th completing the 2nd step of the 3 step confirmation. The VIX closed red on Wednesday, Oct 9th, to complete the final step 3 of confirmation.
- The SP-500 closed September in the green (above 5648 on Monday September 30th), thus the SP-500 has posted 8 of 9 green months during calendar year 2024. This has happened only 8 other times in history and all 8 times Q4 was also green by an average gain of +6.6% (or 5762 + 380 = 6142 by Dec 31st, 2024). Link: https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1840400325234044964
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Chart Pattern: Potential Bullish Ascending Triangle Break-Out above 5666, with a measured move target at 6219.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (11-3-23 and again on 8-19-24): The ZBT signal triggered on Monday, 8-19-24. The ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2-Q3 (Apr-Sept) and finally a big Q4 rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV is underway headed for the [5]=[1] target at 6234. The first minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 5652. The minor 2 of major [5] wave completed at 5402, just above the 50% Fib of 5381. The minor 3 wave up is underway and headed to a new all-time high above 5569. The minor 3=1.23*minor1 target is at 6057. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 5671 and the minute (2) wave traced out a flat to 5615. The wave minute (3) wave up is underway with a target at 5983, where (3)=1.38(1). Withing minute (3), wave i-(3) completed at 5767 and wave ii-(3) completed at 5674 (back-test of the large triangle break-out). Wave iii-(3) is completed at 5871, where iii=1.38i and wave iv-(4) completed at 4804, testing the 38% Fib at 5796. Wave v-(3) up could have completed at 5878 (alt blue labels), where (3)=(1) and now a minute (4) pull-back to 38% Fib of 5758 is underway or if the SP500 can hold above 5804 it will continue to the 5945 to 5986 target area, where (3)=1.23=5945 or (3)=1.38(1)=5988. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5804.
House Keeping: A will be away from the office all this week (Monday Oct 21st through Friday Oct 25th) on a short vacation out west. I will try to post a couple blog updates.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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