August 14th, 2024: SP500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on August 14, 2024
3:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5434 to 5441, quickly hit 5448, dropped to 5416 (day’s low), rose to 5463 (day’s high) and closed at …
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal (SP500 Buy Trifecta Confirmed at the Close on Aug 8th!):
- SP500 Lower BB: Closed just barely below (5240.03 vs 5240.15 the lower BB again on Aug 6th. Closed above the lower BB on Aug 7th. Confirming of SP500 BB Based SP500 Buy Signal.
- NYMO Lower BB: Closed below the lower BB on Aug 5th. Closed back above the lower BB on Aug 6th. Confirms the NYMO BB Based SP500 Buy Signal.
- VIX Upper BB: Closed above the upper BB on Aug 5th. Closed back below the upper BB on Aug 6th and confirms step. On Aug 7th the VIX closed red and failed to confirm step 3 of the 3 step confirmation of the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal. On August 8th the VIX closed red and confirmed step 3 of the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal!
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV bottomed at 5119, just above the 38% Fib of 5074. Wave major [5] is underway headed for the [5]=[1] target at 6234. The first minute (1) of minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 5331. The minute (2) wave completed at 5196 near the 62% Fib of 5200. The minute (3) wave up is underway reaching 5463 thus far and is likely headed for (3)=1.62(1) at 5539. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5331.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor A of major [4] completed at 5119. The minor B wave is underway with a 62%/78% Fib retrace target range of 5460 to 5548. Once the minor B wave completes, the minor C wave will drop be 5119 and complete the major [4] wave.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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