August 8th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on August 8, 2024
6:05 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5199 to 5251, climbed steady all day to 5328 (day’s high), dipped to 5297 and closed at 5319.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal (SP500 Buy Trifecta Confirmed at the Close on Aug 8th!):
- SP500 Lower BB: Closed just barely below (5240.03 vs 5240.15 the lower BB again on Aug 6th. Closed above the lower BB on Aug 7th. Confirming of SP500 BB Based SP500 Buy Signal.
- NYMO Lower BB: Closed below the lower BB on Aug 5th. Closed back above the lower BB on Aug 6th. Confirms the NYMO BB Based SP500 Buy Signal.
- VIX Upper BB: Closed above the upper BB on Aug 5th. Closed back below the upper BB on Aug 6th and confirms step. On Aug 7th the VIX closed red and failed to confirm step 3 of the 3 step confirmation of the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal. On August 8th the VIX closed red and confirmed step 3 of the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal!
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV is headed for the 38% Fib at 5074. Thus, far the SP500 has dropped to 5119 and looks completing a minute (4) of minor C at 5331 with more drop below 5119 for minute (5) of C to complete major [4] near the 38% Fib of 5074 and the rising 200-day SMA at 5016. However, it possible that 5119 did complete major [4] at the minor C=1.62A target of 5116 (alt blue labels). The first minute (1) of minor 1 of major [5] wave completed at 5331. Now the minute (2) wave completed at 5196 near the 62% Fib of 5200. The minute (3) wave up is underway headed for (3)=1.62(1) at 5539. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid below the minute (1) of minor C low of 5410. Above 5410, the major [4] low is likely in place at 5119. The alt (blue) count is valid above 5119.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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