August 1st, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on August 1, 2024
3:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5522 to 5537, quickly hit 5566 (day’s high), then declined for most of the rest of the day to hit 5410 (day’s low) and closed at 5448.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal Alert (2 of 3 triggered on Thursday, July 25th):
- VIX BB, VIX Sell/SP500 Buy: The VIX closed at 18.46 and is above its upper BB (17.72). Triggered!
- SP500 BB, SP500 Buy: The SP500 closed at 5399 and is below its lower BB (5406). Triggered!
- NYMO BB, SP500 Buy: The NYMO closed at -2 and needs to drop below its lower BB at -39.
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: Closed on Wednesday, July 31st at a new all-time new high with the SP500 at 5522 well below the all-time high of 5669. This is very constructive (bullish), as the SP500 is likely to follow to a new all-time high. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5391. The major [5] wave up is underway with a major [5]=[1] target at 6424. Wave minute (1) of minor 1 of major [5] reached 5556. Wave minute (2) retraced to the 88% Fib at 5410. The wave minute (3) target is at 5793, where (3)=1.62(1). Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the major [4] low at 5391.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4] is playing out as a minor A-B-C wave down to the 23% Fib of 5309. The minor A wave dropped to 5391. The minor B wave retraced to 5566, which was right above the 62% Fib at 5563. The minor C wave down is underway with a C=A target at 5288. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below 5566.
- Note: A large major [4] triangle could form under either of those wave count scenarios, which will drag out in time before the major [5] wave up gets underway.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weeky chart:
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