July 29th, 2024: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on July 29, 2024
3:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5459 to 5472, quickly hit 5488 (day’s high), dropped to 5444 (day’s low), then rallied to 5486 and closed at 5463.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal Alert (2 of 3 triggered on Thursday, July 25th):
- VIX BB, VIX Sell/SP500 Buy: The VIX closed at 18.46 and is above its upper BB (17.72). Triggered!
- SP500 BB, SP500 Buy: The SP500 closed at 5399 and is below its lower BB (5406). Triggered!
- NYMO BB, SP500 Buy: The NYMO closed at -2 and needs to drop below its lower BB at -39.
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: Closed on Friday, July 26th very near an all-time new high with the SP500 well below the all-time high of 5669. This is potentially very constructive (bullish) if NYSE A-D Line can break out to all-time new high, then the SP500 is very likely to follow. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV topped at 5669, slightly above where major [3]=1.38[1] target of 5642. The major [4] wave retraced to 5391 to just below the C=A target of 5413. The major [5] wave up is underway with a major [5]=[1] target at 6424. Wave i-(1) of minor 1 of major [5] reached 5491 and the wave ii-(1) wave dropped to 5398. The wave iii-(3) wave is headed for the iii=1.62i target at 5560. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the major [4] low at 5391.
- The alternate (blue) count is that major [4] is headed for the 23% Fib at 5309 and where C=1.62A at 5306. Wave minute (4) of minor C of major [4] looks to be playing out as a triangle wave below 5491. Once the minor (4) triangle completes, the minute (5) wave should break below 5391 and target the C=A at 5306.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-in chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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