July 25th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on July 25, 2024
5:25 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 5427, dropped to 5391 (day’s low), then rallied to 5491 (day’s high) and then dropped to close at 5399.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal Alert (2 of 3 triggered on Thursday, July 25th):
- VIX BB, VIX Sell/SP500 Buy: The VIX closed at 18.46 and is above its upper BB (17.72). Triggered!
- SP500 BB, SP500 Buy: The SP500 closed at 5399 and is below its lower BB (5406). Triggered!
- NYMO BB, SP500 Buy: The NYMO closed at -2 and needs to drop below its lower BB at -39.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle (1st Year President) shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV topped at 5669, slightly above where major [3]=1.38[1] target of 5642. The major [4] wave should retrace to the C=A target of 5413. The minor A of major [4] wave completed at 5497, the minor B completed at 5585 and the minor C wave his headed for the C=A target at 5413. The major [4] wave may have completed today at 5391 or needs one more slightly lower low than 5391 to set a +DIV.
- The alternate (blue) count is that major [4] is headed for the 23% Fib at 5309 and where C=1.62A at 5306.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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