July 22nd, 2024: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on July 22, 2024
6:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5505 to 5540, rose to hit 5562, dropped to 5529 (day’s low), then rallied to 5570 (day’s high) and closed at 5564.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: On Thursday, July 18th and Friday, July 19th the VIX closed above its upper BB. This triggered the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal step 1. On Monday, July 22nd, the VIX closed below the lower BB to confirm step 2. Finally the VIX need to close red on Tuesday, July 23rd to confirm step 3.
- NYMO: On Thursday, July 11th the NYMO closed +40 at +52. The NYMO closing above +20 and then above +40 confirms this bull wave is headed much higher.
- NYSE A-D Cumulative ($NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com): On Thursday, July 11th, the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative broke out to a new all-time high. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative break-out to an all-time new high confirms the bull wave is headed much higher.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV is headed for 5910, where [3]=1.62[1]. Wave minute (3) of minor 5 of major [3] completed at 5642, where (3)=1.23(1). The minute (4) is tracing out an a-b-c, where a-(4) ended at 5576, b-(4) completed at 5669 and c-(3) completed at 5497, near where c=2.62a at 5486 and the 38% Fib at 5487. Thus, wave (4) completed at 5497. The minute (5) of minor 5 wave up is underway headed above 5669 toward the major [3]=1.62[1] target at 5910. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5497.
- The alternate (blue) wave is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5669, slightly above where major [3]=1.38[1] target of 5642. The major [4] wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib at 5309. The minor A of major [4] wave completed at 5497. The minor B bounce is underway to 50%/62% Fib target area of 4583 to 5602. Once minor B is completed, the minor C of major [4] wave will head lower to the 23% Fib target at 5309. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid below 5669.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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