July 18th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on July 18, 2024
7:00 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5588 to 5601, rose to hit 5613 (day’s high) then dropped the rest of the day to hit 5523 (day’s low) and rallied late to close at 5544.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: On Thursday, July 18th, the VIX closed above its upper BB. This triggers the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal step 1. Need a closed back inside the lower BB to confirm step 2.
- NYMO: On Thursday, July 11th the NYMO closed +40 at +52. The NYMO closing above +20 and then above +40 confirms this bull wave is headed much higher.
- NYSE A-D Cumulative ($NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com): On Thursday, July 11th, the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative broke out to a new all-time high. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative break-out to an all-time new high confirms the bull wave is headed much higher.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV is headed for 5910, where [3]=1.62[1]. Wave minute (3) of minor 5 of major [3] completed at 5642, where (3)=1.23(1). The minute (4) is tracing out an a-b-c, where a-(4) ended at 5576, b-(4) completed at 5669 and now c-(3) is headed for c=2.62a at 5486 and the 38% Fib at 5487. Wave (4) could have completed today 5523 or could hit 5487. Once minute (4) completes, the minute (5) of minor 5 wave will headed above 5669 toward the major [3]=1.62[1] target at 5910.
- The alternate (blue) wave is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5669, slightly above where major [3]=1.38[1] target of 5642. The major [4] wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib at 5309. The minor A of major [4] wave could have completed today or could target the 5487 area. Once minor A completed, there will be minor B bounce to 50% Fib target (4596 based on minor A at 5523). Then one more drop for minor C of major [1] to the 23% Fib target at 5309.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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