July 16th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on July 16, 2024
4:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5632 to 5644, drifted sideways and closed near the high of 4669 (NEW ALL-TIME Intra-day High) at 4667 (NEW ALL-TIME Closing High).
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: On Friday, July 12th the NYMO closed above +69. The NYMO closes above +20 and then above +40 confirms this bull wave is headed much higher.
- NYSE A-D Cumulative ($NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com): On Thursday, July 11th, the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative broke out to a new all-time high. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative break-out to an all-time new high confirms the bull wave is headed much higher.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV is headed for 5910, where [3]=1.62[1]. Wave minute (3) of minor 5 of major [3] has been underway since 5192 with a target at 5669, where (3)=1.23(1) and may have completed today at 5669 or could move slightly higher to 5727, where (3)=1.38(1). Assuming minute (3) completed at 5669, the minute (4) retrace 23% Fib target is at 5558.
- The alternate (blue) wave is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV completed today 5667, slightly above where major [3]=1.38[1] target of 5642. The major [4] wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib at 5289.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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