July 11th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on July 11, 2024
12:40 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 5633, quickly hit 5642 (day’s high, NEW ALL-TIME Intra-day High!), then dropped to 5580…
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: On Wed, July 10th the NYMO closed above +20 at +21. On Thurs, July 11th, intra-day the NYMO is near +50. The NYMO needs to close above +20 and then above +40 to confirm this bull wave is headed much higher.
- NYSE A-D Cumulative ($NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com): The NYSE A-D Line improved on Wed, July 10th closed up 1.2% and very near an all-time high. This is a sign of improving market breadth. On Thurs, July 11th, intra-day the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is up +1.8% at a new all-time high. Will need to see the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative break-out to an all-time new high to fully confirm the bull wave is headed much higher.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The new primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV is headed for 5910, where [3]=1.62[1]. Wave minute (3) of minor 5 of major [3] has been underway since 5192 with a target at 5820, where (3)=1.62(1). Wave i-(3) completed at 5505 and wave ii-(3) ended at 5446. The wave iii-(3) is underway with a iii=i target at 5759. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 5446.
- The new alternate (blue) wave is that major [3]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at the major [3]=1.38[1] target of 5642. The major [4] wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib at 5289. Note: The SP500 must drop below 5523 to confirm this alt(blue) wave count.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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